Sandy Loss Scenarios Per Insurer

Fitch’s estimates for direct individual company losses were derived from a combination of assumptions, company-reported premium data and statistics and estimates from Fitch, SNL Financial, AIR Worldwide and EQECAT. Under this analysis, the Fitch established the top 10 by weighted market share. Photo courtesy of Laurie DePrete

Hartford Fire Group

Hartford Fire Group : Losses based on $20 billion scenario — $503 million Losses based on $40 billion scenario — $1 billion

USAA Group

USAA Group: Losses based on $20 billion scenario — $522 million Losses based on $40 billion scenario — $1 billion

Erie Insurance Group

Erie Insurance Group: Losses based on $20 billion scenario — $668 million Losses based on $40 billion scenario — $1.3 billion

Nationwide Mutual Group

Nationwide Mutual Group: Losses based on $20 billion scenario — $715 million Losses based on $40 billion scenario — $1.4 billion

National Indemnity

National Indemnity: Losses based on $20 billion scenario — $892 million Losses based on $40 billion scenario — $1.8 billion

The Chubb Corporation

The Chubb Corporation: Losses based on $20 billion scenario — $991 million Losses based on $40 billion scenario — $2 billion

Travelers Group

Travelers Group: Losses based on $20 billion scenario — $1.4 billion Losses based on $40 billion scenario — $2.9 billion

Liberty Mutual Group

Liberty Mutual Group: Losses based on $20 billion scenario — $1.6 billion Losses based on $40 billion scenario — $3.3 billion

Allstate Insurance Group

Allstate Insurance Group: Losses based on $20 billion scenario — $1.8 billion Losses based on $40 billion scenario — $3.6 billion

State Farm Mutual Group

State Farm Mutual Group: Losses based on $20 billion scenario — $1.9 billion Losses based on $40 billion scenario — $3.9 billion

Catastrophe modeling firms have made preliminary estimates ranging from a ($10-20 billion insured loss from Sandy. While the ultimate level of insured losses from Sandy remains uncertain, Fitch analyzed several hypothetical loss scenarios—including a severe scenario of a $40 billion total insured loss—for individual insurers based on direct premium business mix and market share in affected states to develop loss projections.

Fitch emphasizes the range of loss scenarios assessed and the range does not represent a Fitch forecast of insured losses. The exercise was done for purposes of sensitivity analysis only and shows that the industry capital position could withstand a more severe loss scenario and would still likely generate a statutory net profit in 2012.