Sandy Loss Scenarios Per Insurer
Catastrophe modeling firms have made preliminary estimates ranging from a ($10-20 billion insured loss from Sandy. While the ultimate level of insured losses from Sandy remains uncertain, Fitch analyzed several hypothetical loss scenarios—including a severe scenario of a $40 billion total insured loss—for individual insurers based on direct premium business mix and market share in affected states to develop loss projections.
Fitch emphasizes the range of loss scenarios assessed and the range does not represent a Fitch forecast of insured losses. The exercise was done for purposes of sensitivity analysis only and shows that the industry capital position could withstand a more severe loss scenario and would still likely generate a statutory net profit in 2012.
Allstate Insurance Group
Losses based on $20 billion scenario — $1.8 billion
Losses based on $40 billion scenario — $3.6 billion
